PRE DRAFT OBSERVATIONS

1. The draft is an inexact science involving "probables" rather than "definites." One only need go back to Ryan Leaf and Brian  Bosworth to see how moves that "looked good at the time" turned out to be utter disasters. Truth be told, the best teams can do is (a) exercise their best judgment and let the percentages play out so that there will be more good decisions than bad ones over time. (i.e. for every Buster Davis, you hope you'll have a couple of Anquan Boldins).

2. All GM's lie about the draft. (I know this isn't anything you didn't already know - I just felt good saying it).

3. This draft will be a bit strange this year because of the change in scheduling. Instead of starting at noon with 15 minute max intervals between picks in the first round followed by a second and third round on the first day, , (a) the new format will start the draft at 3pm ET, (b) there will be 10 minutes between picks in the first round and (c) there will only be two rounds Saturday. (Round 3 will commence at 10 am ET the next day).

Which means - there will be less time between picks for trades to be made but there will also be 6 business hours (between 9 am and 3 pm) prior to the beginning of  the draft for all kinds of trade mischief to occur. In other words, there's less likelihood that you'll go to bed Friday night with your mock draft nailed down only to find that things had chanced the next morning because deals were done the previous night. (Of course, it can't be guaranteed that the new timetable will stop GM's from working their Blackberries all night long anyway - it's  must more likely that they'll be able to hold most of that sort of stuff til the following morning since they'll have all that extra time.

4. A lot of disagreement on player rankings this year. Take a look at ten draft boards and they'll all differ widely all over the lot. Trying to conduct a down & dirty seven round draft is really difficult since a DT who might be gone by our pick on one board might still be around 3 rounds later on another.

Jonathan Stewart vs. Mike Jenkins
An interesting Top 15 mock draft was conducted by Waddle and Casserly on NFL Network. Still available at #16 were RB Jonathon Stewart and CB Mike Jenkins - top guys on my board (and expect yours as well). Assuming we all agree - that CB and a RB to share the load with Edge and eventually succeed him -  are key position priorities, would you (a) draft Stewart first and hope that a CB like Antoine Cason. Aquib Talib or Tyvan Branch  will be available with our second pick at #50? or (b) would you first secure a a safer top 3 CB first and look to draft a Kevin Smith, Jamaal Charles or a Ray Rice second?

Fasten your seat belts.

Below the Radar
Here's my take on talent at each position and some observations about certain prospects who may be flying a bit below the horizon line:

Quarterbacks
Short on talent at the top (I'm not even sold on Ryan) , but fairly deep just below. There could be 3 QB's who go in the first round (Ryan, Flacco and Brohm) or possibly just one. I'm sticking with my original sleeper, Josh Johnson (a smarter, smaller college version of Vince Young) and hope the Cards draft him in the mid rounds.

Running Backs
Three very talented ones in McFadden, Mendenhall and Stewart, followed by a few capable of making an impact on whomever drafts them. Plus Felix Jones who might or might not sneak into the first round. Kevin Smith didn't wow anyone with his speed at the Combine (4.53 area) but appeared to be a big back with all the other skills. He helped his cause running a 4.47 on his Pro Day. He'd be an intriguing pick for the Cards if he were to last til #50. Also to be considered after Round One: Matt Forte and Jamaal Charles.

Fullbacks
Cards already have Terrell Smith, but man oh man! Owen Schmitt looks like our kind of guy.

Wide Receivers
Relatively weak at the top, but pretty deep after that. The Cards wouldn't mind adding a receiver or two to push the guys already on the roster - especially a speedy slot type guy. I'd expect them to cherry pick someone like a Dexter Jackson, Donnie Avery or Andre Caldwell in the middle three rounds.

Tight Ends
Very few blockers in this group. Stevens and Bennett may not be the most top rated, but those are the two I'd be eyeballing in the early rounds. Nothing to write home about after that.

Offensive Linemen
Deep in top tackle talent (with Long, Clady, C Williams, Otah and possibly Cherilus likely to go in the first round) plus some interesting guys like Nicks and Rhinehart a bit further down. Not much talent at the top at guard - but  a lot of nice grinders (the kind Russ Grimm should appreciate) available in the mid rounds. Cards could use more help in the power running game. Keep an eye on Schuening, Greco and Rachal early on the second day.

Defensive Linemen
Position definitions are getting murkier and murkier, with DE's also able to play OLB and DT's moved outside to play DE in a 3-4. (And vice versa). Looking at things in the traditional way, there are really four different defensive line positions worth examining. Edge Rushing DE, Strong Side RDE, One Gap DT and Two Gap NT. Both Rod and Wiz agree you can never have too many explosive pass rushers.

There's a lot of edge rushing talent at the top of this draft but most of it is at OLB. Gholston will be long gone by #16, but Purdue's Cliff Avril of Purdue (our sleeper because he can play OLB or DE like B-Train or Chike) and Phillp Merling  should be available when we pick in round one (in fact, Avril could conceivably drop to us at #50).

Chris Long, Calais Campbell and Larry Jackson are larger but not as explosive and thereby are decent candidates for LDE. After that, you'll find a lot of guys who aren't quite big enough and not quite fast enough to be premo DE's - but could still round out many a roster.

It's rare to find DT's who are (a) huge, (b) quick and (c) have non-stop motors. There are two of them at the top of the draft in Glenn Dorsey and Sedric Ellis. After that, the next plateau of nose tackles line up pretty talented and deep. The guy who intrigues me most is Atiyha Rubin, but Kentwan Balmer, Frank Okam, Red Bryant and Henry Smith could all turn out to be fairly productive gap pluggers.

Laws, Langford, Booker and Fluellan look like they could develop into productive penetrator-style tackles.

LInebackers
Weak at the top inside and OK but not terrific further down the charts. Lofton and Bell look like players, but not in the first round. We like Leman for his intangibles and Wheeler, Mayo, Butler and Gooden have nice measurables. But you don't have are any Urlachers or AJ Hawks in this grouip.

On the outside, Rivers is considered a Top 10 - 15 talent but then there's a dropoff to a pretty deep plateau occupied by Adibi, Groves, Kehl, Henderson, Connor and others. A word about Kehl: When we start analyzing talent for an upcoming draft, there will be a bunch of overachievers who get the job done on the football field but tend to lack measurables. One thing to look for when reviewing guys like a Jordy Nelson, a Leman or a Silva is a faster-than-expected forty time (Sometimes it helps explain why some of these guys looked good on film). Kehl is one of those guys - in addition to his hustle and instincts, he also ran a 4.56 , showing he has some athleticism to go with his intangibles. Keep your eye on Kehl.

Cornerbacks
Deepest and most talented group in this draft, and it's a good thing it is: With Rolle moving to safety, it leaves Eric Green and Rod Hood as our starters backed up by a bunch of...well...backups (like Ware, Ralph Brown and Adams) who won't embarrass you and can start in a pinch. But they're not going to make a lot of big plays either. Cards need to upgrade both the talent and depth at the position. Fortunately, there are a half-dozen CB's who all quite talented and  fit the Cardinal system. Three of them (McKelvin, Rodgers-Cromartie and M Jenkins) are considered by most to be of Top 16 value. But rated not too far behind are Cason, Branch and Patrick Lee. And, should the Cards seek to shore up the position even further there are talented  but somewhat more risky guys further down the food chain - guys like Tracy Porter (who can cover but might not hit) or Talib (possible character concerns) or raw developmental guys like King or Godfrey. Mixed in among these guys are slightly bigger, slightly less speedy cover 2 zone type guy like Brandon Flowers or Chevis Jackson who can still run in the low 4.5's. Keep an eye on Antuan Moldin who (a) is rocketing up the charts and (b) rhymes with Anquan Boldin - should we draft him.

Safety
Prospects fall into 3 categories - Big strong in-the-box safeties like Adrian Wilson, Fleet "centerfielders" who can cover a lot of ground to help while still tackling well enough in the open field to be trusted and "smart guys" who aren't as tough or as fast  - but get the job done based on their instincts and smarts. The one elite prospect in this draft is Kenny Phillips - whose both fast enough and tough enough (but not thought to be quite in the same league as "U" Guys Ed Reed or the late Sean Taylor. Phillips is the only lock to go in the first round - anywhere from around #15 or later.  Tyrell Johnson can both thump and has cover speed. DeCoud is a quality center fielder and Morgan is said to have pretty all around skills. Demps is a centerfielder type. And Castille is a physical ex-corner (who presumably can cover). But most of the safety prospects are really Linebackers-Lite. Top of the list is Zbikowsi. Keep an eye on Silva (a BRS favorite), Barber and Hefney. And Doggett (listed by us at LB) is a lights out hitter with the speed to stay at SS.