PRE-CAMP PREVIEW
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For the first time, we're turning to the folks who publish Pro Football Prospectus to hopefully make us all smarter when checking out the Cardinals. These are the guys who have dissected every imaginable statistic and have broken down nearly every assignment on every play in every NFL game to create more meaningful measures of player, team and strategic effectiveness. The most useful measures include:

DVOA (“Defense-Adjusted Value-Over Average”)
The DVOA is a  complex and universal player and team rating stat that factors in such elements as:  Down & Distance, Game Situation, Caliber of Opposing Offense/Defense, Offensive/Defensive Scheme Faced and  Player Matchups - to assign a value to every player, unit and team's  effectiveness on either side of the ball for every play charted and then aggregate everything into a quarter, game and season. It  assigns each play a "Success Value" based,on both “total yards”  and “yards needed for a 1^st down.” (A play is considered a success if it gains 45% of the needed yards on 1st Down, 65% of remaining needed yards on 2nd down or 100% of the remaining yards on third  or fourth downs) They then compare this with the league average for similar situations to come up with the DVOA. (Note - a positive DVOA means "above the league average"n for the offense and below average for the defense. A negative DVOA means "below average for the offense and above average for the defense).

Somehow  Football Outsiders is able to make the DVOA a “universal efficiency standard for all aspects of play - individual plays, players, defensive units, offensive units and entire teams - both by play and for each  game the season.

DYAR (“Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement”)
It asks and answers the question: “If this starter were to be injured, what would be the drop off in efficiency when you brought in his backup?” In other words, how indispensable to the team would this player be?

ALY (Adjusted Line Average)
Isolates offensive line effectiveness from RB effectiveness to gauge the net impact the O-line has on any running play.

One note of caution the PFP statistics and analysis are based on this past season's numbers; so while they can might help us sort out what to expect in 2008, they can't 100% predict the future.

Overall Offense
Not as potent a year ago, as we’d all think; but not all that bad either.

·          Cards ranked near the middle of the pack in offensive efficiency (DVOA) but also ranked fairly high (#6) in consistency & predictability.

·          They’re weak on first downs (11.6% below the league average in DVOA efficiency) but slightly above average on second downs (3.4%) and pretty good on third downs (17.0% above the league average).

·          They were 3^rd best team in the Red Zone

·          Cards were near the bottom of the league in using play action fakes.

·          In short yardage situations, Cards lined up in 4 or 5 receiver sets more than any other team except Detroit.

·          Cards ran the highest percentage of screens on 3^rd down (1 in every 17 plays)

·          Arizona QB’s were hit (but not sacked) more than any other team.

·          Cards ranked 3^rd (behind NE and Jax) in 4^th Quarter Passing DVOA efficiency.

·          But they ranked #7 in 4^th Quarter Running DVOA efficiency.

·          Although Warner had a higher Passing DVOA than Leinart, Matt had the better DVOA under pressure.

·          Leinart racked up twice as many hurries than Warner.

Quarterbacks (3)
 7 Leinart,13 Warner, 02 St. Pierre, 12 Morelli
Leinart with Warner as backup makes more sense than Warner with Leinart as backup (as you’ll see below)

·          Cards are 9.1% ahead of the league norm in passing efficiency (DVOA)

·          Warner has a DVAR of 699. Leinart has a DVAR vs. 58 – meaning that we’re in deeper trouble were Kurt to go down than we would if Matt were injured.

·          The above stats confirm that Warner is otherwise solid but with not much room for upside growth and represents a reliable option should Leinart be injured, whereas Leinart (who has a huge upside) hasn’t yet proved himself to be as dependable an option should Warner be injured.

·          Warner’s DVOA is 11.3% above the league average. Leinart’s is 3.3% below average.

·          YAC figures are similar for both Warner (4.5) and Leinart (4.3). By comparison, Romo’s (5.0) and Brady’s (5.1) receivers have slightly higher averages. P Manning’s pass catchers have a 4.5 yard YAC figure when he throws to them.

·          PFP makes mention of Warner’s tendency to put the ball on the ground and/or abort plays at inopportune times (most notably the fumble in the end zone that cost us one of the Niners’ games).

Questions Going In
Is Leinart's shoulder 100%? Has he, in fact, coming along as quickly as the coaches say he is?  How's Warner's elbow? Will St. Pierre be "good to go" should we need to call on him.

Running Backs (5)
RB - 32 James, 31 Shipp, 28 JJ Arrington, 30 Vincent,  33 Baylark, 34 Hightower
FB - 45 T Smith, 46 Castille, 44 D Johnson
Right now, it looks like Edge plus a whole bunch of other guys. James is one of those guys who will get you steady yardage on every play - not costing you much negative yardage due to a stuff but no longer breaking long runs either. The only breakawy back on the roster is Arrington, and he's never lived up to his predraft expectations. Shipp is mainly a pounder and both Baylark and Hightower are between the tackles type runners without much if any home run speed. None of our RB's have shown much skill catching out of the backfield.

·          Cards were 13.8% below the league norm for rushing efficiency (DVOA).

·          All Cardinal RB’s were below the league average in efficiency (including Edge – who was 1.0% below the league average in DVOA).

·          Edge had an overall Success rate of 46%. (Shipp had 40%. JJ had 27%). Compare this with Peterson (45%),Westbrook (53%), Tomlinson (45%) and Edge didn’t do too badly other than not displaying breakaway speed.

·          Card RB’s ranked dead last in gains of 10+ yards past the line of scrimmage.

·          Among RB’s, Arrington caught 74% of the balls thrown his way. Edge caught 64%. Shipp (“hands of stone”) only caught 29%.

·          But, when catching passes, Edge is 11.2% below the league average in efficiency. (JJ is 5.5% above average).

·          Cardinal RB’s only caught one TD pass last year.

Questions Going In
Can Edge stay healthy? If he can't, what would we do then? Will Hightower prove to be faster than his predraft numbers? Will light bulbs finally go off for JJ?

Wide Receivers (5 or 6)
WRX - 81 Boldin, 87 Morey, 85 Urban, 86 Merritt
WRZ -80 Doucet, 15 Breaston, 18 Cornelius
WRH - 11 Fitzgerald,  10 Rector,19 Long
Right now, it’s Fitz and Boldin. Urban has nicer than expected stats. We were kind of surprised Breaston’s stats weren’t better. There is definitely an opening for Early Doucet and other Cardinal backups to fill the #3 - #5 roles.

·          Boldin’s overall efficiency (DVOA) is 16.3% above league average. Fitzgerald’s is 9.1%. Urban’s is a surprising 22.4% above league average.

·          Fitz’s replacement value (DYAR) is 291. Boldin’s is 229. Urban comes in at 101.

·          Q catches catches 71% of the balls thrown to him. Fitz 60%.  Moss averaged 61%, Owens 57%, Reggie Wayne 67% and Anthony Gonzalez an amazing 73%)

·          Boldin’s YAC figure is 5.3 yards. Fitz’s is 2.7. (Gold Standard is TO’s  7.7. Randy Moss only averaged 3.3).

Questions Going In
Who'll replace Bryant Johnson? WIll it be one of the veteran standbyes like Morey, Merrit or Urban? Will Steve Breaston make the next step upward to seize the opportunity? WIll Doucet live up to his predraft hype and turn out to be the next Anqyuan Boldin? (LIke Q, Doucet's predraft forty time suffered from his being injured and he was underdrafted). ? Who (if anybody) will fill the need for a "burner?"

·         Patrick’s receiving efficiency is 8.9% above the league average, while Pope is 3.6% above the mean for the league.

·          Pope is catching 68% of the balls thrown his way. Patrick grabbed 58%. (By way of comparison: K Winslow only caught 55% and A Gates grabbed 64%)

Questions Going In
Will Pope finally live up to his predraft hype? Can Patrick beat out Pope for a starting job? Will the addition of Tuman improve our run game?

Offensive Line (8 or 9)
LT- 69 Gandy, 65 Coleman
LG-  74 Wells, 61 E Brown
OC-  50 A Johnson, 63 Sendlein,   64 Peters
RG-  76 Lutui, 66 Medder, 67 Satele
RT -   75 L Brown, 68 Vallejo,  72 B Keith, 60 Clifford
Improving – both in the rushing game and protecting the passer – but with very little depth and a lot of room to improve. PFP feels the right side, though still raw, has a high upside while the left side, though more seasoned and reliable will need to be upgraded soon. With the exception of Sendlein (who is expected to challenge Johnson at center) and possibly Elton Brown, this unit is not very deep in proven backup talent.

·          ALY was 8th best in NFL (improved from 23^rd ranking last year and dead last in 2005).

·          Our RB’s were stuffed only 21% of the time (8^th best in NFL).

·          Cards rank 9^th in lowest adjusted sack rate (despite having 2 “statuesque” QB’s)

·          Cards ranked 4^th in running effectiveness over RT. They ranked 10^th over the middle, 13^th around RE and 14^th off LT. But they only ranked 22^nd running around LE.

Questions Going In
What in the way of unit cohesion and effectiveness will the extra year under Russ Grimm have on this unit? Will Elton Brown advance sufficiently enough to provide us with depth at both guard and tackle positions without any significant loss in effectiveness? If Keith can remain sufficiently fired up, will he flash the God-given talent the scouts expect of him?

Overall Defense

·          Cardinal defensive efficiency (DVOA) runs 5.3% below the league norm.

·          They ran 3.4% better than the league norm stopping 1^st down plays, but ran 14.6% below average defending on 2^nd downs (28^th ranked) and 7.3% worse than the league average defending on 3^rd downs.

·          They were 19^th ranked team in Red Zone defense.

·          Cards had the league best average against screens

·          Arizona ranked #3 against passes up the middle

·          Defense was flat-average when opponent QB was under center but ranked #31 when they faced the shotgun.

·          Yet the Cards only faced the shotgun 21% of the time (2^nd lowest in NFL).

·          Cards rank #2 in NFL in plays where they only rush 3 men.

·          They rank #6 in sacks by a LB

·          They had zero sacks by a DB last year. (A-Dub where were you?)

·          Cards were #10 in number of times they “went for it” on 4^th down.

·          PFP makes mention of too many Cardinal penalties (especially from Dockett and Rolle).

(Late Note - A couple of ASFN'ers point out that there is an interrelationship between DB performance and Front Seven pass rush effectiveness (i.e. more pressure on the QB makes a DB's job easier. This also works the opposite way - i.e. better pass coverage makes for more QB pressures, hurries and sacks)

Defensive Line (8 or 9)
LDE- 56 Okeafor,  79 Iwebema, 95 Schobel,
UT- 90 Dockett,  96 Kolodziej, 71 B Robinson (Wesley)
NT  98 Watson, 78 Branch, 97 B Robinson (Fresno), 73 Dykes, )
RDE/WLB  94 A Smith, 93 C Campbell, 96 Tafoya, 62 Banks
Injury-depleted unit has been bolstered by the return of injured players and addition of rookie and FA talent. It was felt that this unit (especially Dockett) wore down during the second half of last year due to its lack of depth. It's tricky to gauge both depth and talent at DE or LB due to the hybrid nature of Clancy Pendergast's defense (since both OLB's, DE's and UT's are frequently shuffled around from position to position). Player versatility and  interchangeability of parts automatically gives us  more depth.

·          Cards were 1.4% more efficient than the league average vs. the run.

·          Injuries took their toll last year, so it may be hard to accurately gauge how good they might be this year assuming everyone stays healthy.

·          Ranked 9^th in league in ALY (which isolates the front seven’s impact against each offensive play).

·          The Cardinals ranked dead last in “Power” (which we presume means “the ability to stop teams from running the ball down their throats).

·          If you wanted to gain running yards against the Cardinals, you could do it over RT (where the Cards ranked 30^th in stopping the run). Everywhere else, the Cardinal Front 7 did well (3^rd against runs over LT, 6^th vs. runs up the middle, 11^th vs. runs around RE and 9^th vs. runs around LE)..

·          Cards were pretty much in the middle of the pack sacking the QB, preventing runs of 10+ yards and stuffing the run.

·          In terms of Stop %; Antonio Smith led DL’s and LB’s with 81% followed by Dockett (77%) and Watson (72%).

·          PFP feels Gerald Hayes could benefit from  better protection from DT’s; however, Gabe Watson’s knee and Alan Branch’s recent conditioning deficiencies could prove problematic.

Questions Going In
 Gabe Watson's kneecap. Alan Branch's commitment (he was said to have reported to a minicamp in lousy shape). Will Chike regain his preseason form of a year ago? Will Dockett keep his grumpiness over contract on the sidelines?  Will Campbell prove to be a tall, long-armed kick and pass blocking beast or just a tall guy who plays high? Will Iwebema be everything his position coach thinks he'll be? Are we solid enough depth-wise inside?

Linebackers (7)
SLB- 55 LaBoy, 51 Stewart, 57 Holloway,
ILB- 54 Hayes, 52 Beisel
ILB  58 Dansby,
WLB 92 Berry,  53 Haggans, 59 Harrington, 37 Highsmith
Injuries and new additions/departures make this the hardest unit on the team to evaluate. B-Train will be back. LaBoy (concussion-history notwithstanding) is considered a solid replacement for the departed Calvin Pace (who brought both a pass rushing presence and pass coverage presence as Okeafor's replacement as an OLB/DE). Hayes and Dansby (both backed by Beisel inside) are considered solid - some consider Dansby to be an eventual NFL superstar).

·         Laboy had 6 sacks last year. (Pace had 6.5)..

·          PFP feels Gerald Hayes could benefit from  better protection from DT’s; however, Gabe Watson’s knee and Alan Branch’s recent conditioning deficiencies could prove problematic.

·         Statistically, all LB's were statistically bunched in Run Stop percentage (in the low to mid 60% range).

·          Pace led all LB's with a 79% Stop Rate (Dansby had 43% number. Hayes had  47%). Berry - listed as a DE - had a 73% run stop number (but defensive linemen always have higher numbers than LB's, and Berry was listed as a LB in Clancy's hybrid scheme).

Questions Going In
 Will Berry be as good as new? WIl Laboy (concussions) stay healthy and will he be as productive as Pace was last year? Can Harrington make the transition from DE? Can Holloway prove that the one Superman blitz play he executed in preseason a year ago was no fuke? Will Ali Highsmith be the next Dat Nguyen or the next Buster Davis? Will Haggans prove to be the OLB clone of Monte Beisel (i.e. more than solid in a backup role)?

Defensive Backs (9)
LCB-  25 E Green, 20 R Brown, 22 Ware, 36 M Brown
RCB-  26 Hood, 29 Rodgers-Cromartie,27 Adams, 41 Bain, 23 Minter
FS- 21 Rolle, 47 Francisco, 38 Keyes
SS-  24 Wilson,35 Celestin, 22 Ware, 40 Tillman
PFP was not all that impressed by this unit's performance a year ago. They placed most of the blame on the shoulders of Eric Green and Antrel Rolle and felt that Rod Hood was shouldering too much of the blame (although he did "look like a fool" attempting to jump a route that Vinnie Testaverde and Steve Smith torched him on). Although Rolle proved he can light things up (almost running three picks back for long TD's all in one game) he did so in a nickel/safety role and not as a #1 or #2 CB, where he struggled. He will replace the departed Terence Holt at FS with Aaron Francisco pushing him. (Wherever Rolle plays, he will have to cut way down on his number of illegal-contact penalties). Cards drafted a spectacular athletice (though raw) corner, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, with their top pick. He has the size, speed and aggressiveness most secondary coaches dream of. If he proves good enough to challenge for a starting spot, it will be Eric Green and not Rod Hood whose job is most likely to be on the line. Cards appear deep in young, unproven talent. It will be up to Tyrell Austin to develop it. (Late Note - A couple of ASFN'ers point out that there is an interrelationship between DB performance and Front Seven pass rush effectiveness (i.e. more pressure on the QB makes a DB's job easier)

·          Cards are 10.3% below the league norm in pass defense efficiency.

·          Cards ranked 19^th in overall pass defense.

·          They ranked 26^th against other teams’ #1 receivers, 28^th against their #2 receiver, 9^th vs. #3 WR’s, 3^rd vs. TE’s and 17^th vs. RB’s.

·          They take give Rod Hood a pass; suggesting that Eric Green and Antrel Rolle were the main reason for poor Cardinal numbers in the secondary.

·          Hood’s Success Rates were 56% vs. #1 WR’s,  43% vs. #2 WR’s and 64% vs. Other WR’s.

·          Green’s’s Success Rate indicates a drop off - 40% vs. #1 WR’s,  36% vs. #2 WR’s and 45% vs. Other WR’s.

·          Rolles’s Success Rates against #1 and #2 WR’s were even  lower at 32%  and 33% respectively. However, his 56% Success Rate vs. Other WR’s suggest a higher level of play in a nickel, dime or safety role.

·          PFP concludes that (a) Rolle’s move to safety is probably a good thing, and that should Rodgers-Cromartie successfully challenge for a starting CB role, it will be to replace Green and not Hood.

·          Last year’s numbers help explain why Terence Holt is history. He ranked 42^nd in run stops compared to Adrian Wilson’s #3 ranking in the NFL.

·          Wilson is said by PFP to have athleticism only rivaled by Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu. Although he’s been  often used as an extra LB in past years, they say he’s expected to spend more time assisting Cardinal CB’s this year.

Questions Going In
Will Rodgers-Cromartie be good enough to start right away? To star? Will Rolle successfully make the transition to safety? Can he play as spectacularly as he did in that one multi-pick game a season ago? Will A-Dub bounce all the way back - is he good to go? Will any youngsters (like Tavarous Bain or the rookie free agent, Keyes) step up and surprise us?

Special Teams (3)
K-01 Rackers
P- 09 D Johnson
H - xx  _______
LS- 48 Hodel
KR - 28 Arrington
PR - 18 Breaston
Field position is gained or lost  due to good or poor special teams play. PFP points out that the Cardinals were lousy in punting and punt coverage last season. Mitch Berger wasn't the answer as our punter last year. The hope is that Dirk Johnson will do better. But that was only part of the story - our punt coverage was abysmal as well. Breaston gave us a bit of a boost returning punts, but the feeling is that JJ can do a better job returning kickoffs. Neil Rackers had another subpar year in the FG/XP Dept., raising questions about whether his really good season a few years back was merely a fluke. His strong kickoff foot does help us considerably.

• Cards ranked 26th in the league in over all Special Teams efficiency (with a DVOA 3.6% below the league average).

• We ranked dead last in Net Punting efficiency losing  21.8 points in the punting game - worse than the NFL average with the coverage team giving up 13 average yards per return only better than Indianapolis.

• PFP reminds us that special teams coverage effectiveness is often a reflection on the caliber of our backup players and how well they are buying into the team philosophy.

• We ranked 29th in FG and XP efficiency (6.2% below the league average).

• But Rackers led all NFL kickers in Kickoff Value this past season.

State of the Position
Will Rackers regain his FG mojo? Will our punt coverage team under Kevin Spencer make the necessary improvement? How much impact, if any, will  Breaston's stronger upper body have on his punt returning ability. Will Dirk Johnson represent an improvement over Mitch Berger in terms of punting yardage, hang time and directional accuracy?