The whole issue of "Position Needs" continues to be overrated in draft-guru circles - at least so far as the Cardinals are concerned. For one thing, the team's drafting philosophy (at least going back as far as the Dennis Green era) has involved variants of the "best player available"(BPA) philosophy. More recently, Steve Keim and his people have preached the need to address team-needs prior to the draft, via trades or free agency in order to avoid reaching for players in the draft. Finally, Coach Arians has installed a staff of assistants who are large in numbers and deep in teachers (If he feels he has a need that can't be addressed by bringing in new personnel, he's got a large group of knowledgeable assistants and has no problem developing the guys he's already got or creating hybrid positions which better fit their individual skills).
Mock drafters and draft pundits love to match team-needs with drafting strategy because it's the simplest road to take, but many teams (including the Cardinals) simply don't draft that way (at least not all the time) - which means that, not only is it difficult to figure out who the Cardinals will select with each pick; but it will be even more difficult to determine who the 23 teams who pick ahead of them (and have varying drafting philosophies) might draft. (I liken it to throwing darts blindfolded at a moving target).
This uncertainty is magnified by the handful of GM's who love to wheel and deal early in the draft. You might be 100% certain that the two teams ahead of you have no interest in the stud offensive tackle high on your radar screen and that he'll be delivered to you on a silver platter. But this ignores the possibility that some team sitting in the late-twenties loves the kid and plans to leapfrog your team and trade up ahead of you to grab the star tackle.
Or it turns out that the prospect screws up his interview. Or there's a question of whether the prospect is "plug & play" or whether he may need a year or two to develop. Or your team is in "Win Now" (or conversely, a "Rebuilding") mode. Or his college coach- a former roomate of your DC - sends him a text warning him off the player). Or, on Draft Day, your GM takes a deep breath, decides he addressed the team's OL-need in free agency and drafts some pass rushing phenom that nobody ever heard of.
Moral: "Don't take mock drafts too seriously because too many different things can happen. So rather than prognosticate about who the Cards will definitely draft (because I don't have a clue), I'd rather give you a more general picture of where I think the Cardinals are roster-wise; and (although I'm no mind reader) what Steve, BA and the Cardinal staff may be thinking looking forward toward Draft Day :
Quarterback
Carson Palmer returns from injury rehab, and this alone should be a net-plus for the Cardinal offense. But a word of caution - you have to hope his injury doesn't turn out to be the first of many, since Carson isn't getting any younger. To evaluate a QB within the context of your team's specific situation, the operative question has to be: Can we win with him?" Part of this will depend on his supporting cast. As I see it, we've got work to do at RB and TE but our OL has been upgraded and our QB should benefit from better pass pro and improved run blocking. we finally got to see what Palmer backup Drew Stanton could do as a starter (and feel confident he can get the job done), but he also is coming off an injury. Logan Thomas, though having a promising upside, was judged "not ready for prime time" last season and held out of action despite being our #3 QB. Instead, BA went with Ryan Lindley (who isn't expected to be back).
On paper, the Cards could cross their fingers, take a deep breath and stand pat with the QB'S we already have; but common sense suggests that, if the right promising rookie was available - and represented good value for the pick - Keim might leap on that puppy.
Running Back
Andre Ellington looked promising a year ago, but, once again, got injured. When healthy, he can be lethal on the perimeter or in the open field, but our inside run game was mediocre at best and the suspension of Jonathan Dwyer didn't help. Stepfan Taylor had a few bright moments inside the tackles, but, by and large, the Cardinal running attack could be best described as "anemic."
There is some talk that the Cardinals may be on the prowl for one of the top two draft prospects (Gordon or Gurley) or perhaps someone in the 2nd or 3rd round (like T Coleman, D Johnson or Ajayi). Gordon might drop down to us at #24 or we might have to trade up to get him. Gurley might also be in play at #24, but his durability remains an issue.
Wide Receiver
Figures to remain a Cardinal strength. Larry Fitzgerald continues to be a top-echelon wideout (& an equally important team leader and lockerroom influence), although he isn't getting any younger. Michael Floyd appears to have a Megatron-type upside, but needs to play faster and more consistently to live up to his potential. The emergence of the "Brown Boys" (John and Jaron) provides quality depth. BA is continually on the prowl for a blazer who can take the top off a defense and open things up for Fitz and Floyd. Last season, he was banking on John Brown and veteran FA Ted Ginn Jr. to fulfill that role. Brown has that speed, but appeared to be more valuable ias a slot guy. Ginn is gonzo. The bottom of the Cardinal WR roster is stocked with a few young wannabee speedsters.
Look for Arians and Keim to cherrypick another tall fast wideout and/or another burner if he represents good value for the pick. The pool of wideout rookie prospects is deep and Keim and Arians would logically want to solidify depth.
Tight End
The Cards (who were not famous for their stellar TE play last season) have five TE's on their roster, with the departure of Housler to free agency. They spent a day 2 pick on Troy Niklas last year, but he fell victim to the injury gods. John Carlson is a well-thought-of veteran completing the second year of a two-year contract. He wasn't entirely healthy and underachieved a year ago, but could be the answer if he bounces back. Darren Fells, Ifeanyi Momah and Ted Bolser round out the TE group. Fells is a high-upside former basketball player who is still learning the position. Momah and Bolser are FA pickups. Niklas, Momah and Fells are over 6-6.
Bottom Line - We won't truly know what we have until training camp but SK and BA might feel more secure with another proven veteran or high-profile draft pick on the roster. Problem is - pickings are slim at TE in this year's draft.
Offensive Line
The "invisible factor" when you evaluate the overall offense (i.e. the skill positions get all the glory...or all the blame). A RB can only be as good as the guys opening up holes n front of him. A QB can only be effective if his pass protection keeps him upright. Since "BBR" (before Buddy Ryan), our offensive line in most years has been, at best, mediocre and, at worst, pathetic. (Each preseason, this writer repeats the mantra: "Pardon me, but what about the offensive line?"). It's not so much that the Cardinal brain-trust has totally ignored the problem - each year, they'd bring in one or two veteran FA's or use an occasional high draft pick on an offensive lineman, but (possibly due to injuries or other forms of "bad luck") we wouldn't do enough to fully dig ourselves out of our hole (we never really took the bull by the horns and undertook a total major overhaul).
This offseason may be where all of this finally changes. A year ago, Steve Keim trolled the free agent waters and came up with Jared Veldheer who has become a solid QB protector at LT. He then used a high draft pick on an OG - Jonathan Cooper (who hopefully will overcome an ongoing battle with the injury gods). This past offseason, Keim took another dip in free agent waters and came away with former Niner Pro Bowl LG, Mike Iupati (considered by some to rank in the top 5 in available free agents this offseason). Cooper is expected to move to RG where he'd play next to 4th year RT Bobby Massie (a raw talent waiting to blossom). Keim then allowed Lyle Sendlein to test the FA waters and brought in AQ Shipley to battle veteran Ted Larsen to be starting center. Former starting LT Ted Sowell remains (at least for now) our backup swingman-tackle. This leaves the pickings pretty slim for remaining roster spots among backup linemen Earl Watforfd, Anthony Steen and a bunch of promising no-names. What remains unknown is whether there's an unknown gem among those 7 backups who'll jump to the fore. Meanwhile - how does a starting unit of Veldheer, Iupati, Shipley, Cooper and Massie sound to you?
Meanwhile, if f BA and SK stick with their BPA policy, there's a deep pool of offensive tackles who might drop to us at #24 or even pick #55. One intriguing prospect who caught my eye is Cameron Erwin (who profiles like an elite tackle prospect but who also, by the way, was starting center last season at Florida State). Just sayin'.
Defensive Line
With Todd Bowles now Jets' HC , the assumption in Cardinal Land is that the defense will remain similar to last year, but will probably add a few new wrinkles from the creative mind of new DC, James Bettcher. (Translation - Cards will operate primarily out of a 3-4 - which means that all three starting D-linemen will be big 290+ lb. guys (with speed off the edge coming from our OLB's or blitzing DB's). Darnell Dockett and Dan Williamsis have left for greener pastures, leaving Calais Campbell and last year's backup to Williams, Alameda Ta'amu, around to man the fort.
Frostee Rucker (a key veteran leader), 2nd year DE Ed Stinson and 13-year FA veteran addition, Cory Redding will help Campbell anchor the edges. FA Corey Peters will add inside depth at DT. It's unclear who will play where in various defensive sets, but the guess would be that Redding will anchor one starting DE spot opposite Campbell and Peterson will be our "Dockett-guy" - either as UT next to Williams iwhen we line up ina 4-3 or in an outside rotation in a 3-4. This leaves us with only one big space-eater (Ta'amu) to occupy the inside.
Whatever the case, it looks on face value as if our D-line could use (a) additional backup bulk at NT and (b) more pass rushing explosion at DE and UT. Many of this season's DE prospects (like Ray, Dupree and Gregory) are really more DE/OLB hybrids. The one guy who seems to best fit the tall Calais Campbell mold and also "bring it" as a pass rusher is Oregon's 6-8 DE Arik Armstead.
Linebacker
We remain dangerously thin here. (Last year we schemed around this problem after losing our two starting ILB's Karlos Dansby and Daryl Washingon (moving rookie safety Deone Bucannon to nickel LB, former DE Matt Shaughnessy to LOLB and elevating pass rush specialist, John Abraham to starting WOLB
It looks as though things haven't changed that much this year. Washington's situation remains "fluid." Sam Acho has moved on to the Browns. Abraham is still on the roster, but his status remains a bit iffy. Kevin Minter is in his third year but it's still unclear whether he can be anything more than a run stopper. Cards brought in veteran ILB free agent Sean Weatherspoon (Falcs) and former Steeler OLB Lamar Woodley. When healthy, both can play at a very high level, but both have injury and "gas left in the tank" questions. Last year's most prolific Cardinal pass rusher was Alex Okafor but tsome wonder whether his success was due mainly from blitz-scheming by Bowles and not necessarily due to special talent.
It looks as though the 6-5 Shaughnessy will remain at SOLB but could also could be moved forward to provide depth at DE behind Campbell. Converely, the Cards plan to move 2nd-year youngster 6-6 Kareem Martin from DE to LB. So it's not as if the Cards are destitute at LB, but the CW is that the most pressing need on the Cardinal roster is for a dynamic pass rusher.
Pass rushing specialists like OLB's Beasely and Fowler or DE/OLB hybrids like Ray and Gregory are expected to be gone by the time the Cards pick at #24.(Although there's one intriguing rumor that SK advised the Houston that "if the right prospect were still available at #16, the Cards might be interested in trading up). Granted, that prospect could be someone rated unreasonably high - like Mariota, but perhaps it could be an a tall DE pass rusher like Armstead or a Dockett-clone like Bennett.
Defensive Back
There's a big "If' - If we had held onto Cromartie, we'd have the most talented and depth-filled secondary in the NFL. But we didn't. Cromartie rejoined Bowles as a Jet. That leaves us with two pretty good corners (Jarraud Powers and Justin Bethel) who may have to take over a starting role opposite Patrick Peterson. But although Powers is a physical corner, he hasn't proved he has the pure athleticism and dynamic ball skills you like to see in a shutdown corner. Bethel spent last year transitioning from safety. He does have the athleticism and ball skills but still must prove he's got down pat the specialized techniques needed to be a really good CB.
It looks like last year's top draft pick Deone Bucannon will return to safety after a rookie stint as nickel-LB. He'll join last year's starter (the overachieving) Tony Jefferson and (the steady but somewhat underrated) Rashad Johnson. The Honey Badger (Tyrann Mathieu) didn't quite make it all the way back last season from a serious injury incurred the year before but now says he's ready to step in and play at the high level he brought to the Cardinals as a rookie. Quite possibly, we could see a starting deep patrol tandem of Bucannon and Mathieu but we'll just have to see how things play out. (Competion is good).
This leaves the Cards solid at safety and "pretty good" at CB opposite Peterson. So why, then, did Keim bring in two more veteran safeties (Clemons and Campbell) and six more young corners during the off-season? Short (cliched) answer: "Because you can never have too many corners or safeties" in a pass-happy football league.
The gut feeling here is that Keim and Arians would feel more comfortable if they had another lights-out corner to start (or provide backup depth) opposite Peterson. Perhaps the prospect at #16 that Keim might trade up for is Michigan State CB Trae Waynes.
Special Teams
Dave Zastudil and Jay Feely figure to be back.(Punter Drew Butler is still on the roster. Why)? In the return game, Ted Ginn Jr. is history. We keep hearing media rumors that we might go back to Patrick Peterson as our punt returner. Bad idea - he's more valuable to us at CB. (i.e. look what happened the first time Tyrann Mathieu returned a punt). Cards figure to troll the draft and UDFA skilled-position waters for a dynamic punt and kickoff returner. The Cards coverage teams continue to be among the league's elite (difficult to sustain since most coverage guys come from the ever-changing "bottom part" of the roster) but a core group of standouts - including kick blockers Calais Campbell and Justin Bethel (who also doubles as one of the leagues best gunners) along with a healthy Mathieu - figure to keep Cardinal coverage units a force to be feared and respected.
Our only major moves on ST's figure to involve returners. There are two logical sources - (1) a highly-rated CB or WR who can double as a return man or (2) a raw talent who can be cherry-picked by the opportunistic Keims as a late-round pick or UDFA.
So that's the deal. Unless a blockbuster deal or two comes down the old pike between now and Draft Day, this is pretty much "it." Stay tuned.
- JGG
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