Do We Do This Trade? -
Tuesday, April 24,
2012 -
Reports that San Diego (at #18) wants to trade up - to
leapfrog Dallas at #14 and grab safety Mark Barron - have fueled
speculation that the ideal trading partner could turn out to be
our very own Cardinals. Let's examine more closely:
As I see it, the only way this makes sense is
if there are 18 players the Cardinals would be happy to take in
the first round. So let's do a combined count of (a) players
likely to go in the top 18 and (b) those whom the Cardinals would
consider part of their top 18.
Luck, RG3, Kalil, Richardson,
Blackmon,Clairborne and Tannehiill figure to be no-brainers.
That's 7. Gilmore, Keuchly, Cox, Reiff and DeCastro would bring
the total to 12. Barron would make it 13. Which would mean that
the Cardinals would have 10 highly-thought-of players to choose
from if they kept the pick (Barron, Ingram, Upshaw, Poe, Brockers,
Thompson, McClellan, Kirkpatrick, K Wright, Glenn) and, should we
opt to trade down to #18, would have 5 of these left to choose
from. Sounds like a plan.
But there's the matter of what we'd get for
exchanging the picks. We're told that the old Draft Value Chart
will be obsolete due to the new CBA. According to that chart, the
Cardinal pick at #13 is worth 1150 points. The Charger pick at #18
is worth 900. The remaining 250 points would be a couple-hundred
shy of SD's 2nd round pick, but would be enough to award the
Cardinals the Chargers' 3rd and 4th round picks. Those two picks
would help take the sting out of our losing a second round pick in
the Kolb trade, but I'm not all that crazy about the talent-pool
at our own #80 pick in the 3rd round let alone SD's a few
picks later.
Bottom Line - Unless there is someone still on
our Board at #13 that the Cardinal FO is in love with, I'd do the
deal for San Diego's second round pick in a nano-second. But if we
had to stick with the old Value Chart and settle for a 3rd and a
4th, I'm not sure I'd do it. It would be a close call. It would
depend on how the Cardinals view the level of talent in the 3rd
round,.
Why Seven Round Team Mocks are Useless
- Friday, April
20, 2012 - Think about it; the Cardinal MO of late has been to
"draft for value." Last year, they considered Ryan Williams a
first-round value, but drafted him in the second round. The year
before that, they considered Daryl Washington a first-round value,
but draft him at #47 in round 2. They've been doing it ever since
2004 when Dennis Green drafted Dockett and Dansby later than their
perceived worth.
Prior to that, the Cards under Coach Mac
would target certain players they really liked and would draft
them "one round early" (so they'd be sure they'd get them). The
problem was that, by drafting players "one round early", they
gradually eroded the overall talent-level of their roster. By
moving 180-degrees away from that strategy, the Cardinals have
frequently drafted players of higher value according to their
board, and the overall talent-level of the roster has gradually
improved.
Which brings us to now. It's virtually
impossible to predict whom the Cardinals will draft in rounds 3 -
7 because - regardless of how the players stack on their
board (or yours) - they will grab the highest-value player that
falls to them. Who that might be will be a mystery until it
happens (because neither we or the Cardinal brass will know which
teams will pass on what players and which guys will fall through
the cracks).
So have fun laying out various 7-round
scenarios and pulling for the Cards to pick the sleepers you hope
they'll take. But don't get too bummed out if you don't get more
than one or two guys right.
2012 Schedule Released -
Tues. April 17, 2012 -
To get the obvious question out of the way, we're on Prime Time
evening TV twice - a Monday Nighter at the Rams and a Thursday
Nighter hosting the Niners. Other highlights:
-
Open/Close We open at
home Sept. 9 hosting. Seattle and close Dec. 30 in San
Francisco.
-
Favorable Early Home/Away
Four of our first 6 games are at home (finally!)
-
BYE Our Bye Week is
Week #10 (Sun. Nov. 11). It comes at a good time - slightly
past mid-season. (First time we recall that ever happening).
-
Short Work Week We have
a short work week - 5 days between Sun.Sept. 30 (Dolphs) and
Thurs. night Oct. 4 (at the Rams)
-
Long Work Week We have
a long work week - 10 days between the Thurs. Oct. 4 game in
StL and Oct. 14 hosting the Bills
-
Mini Long/Short Work Weeks
We get an extra day prepping for the Niners on MNF Oct. 29 but
lose a day between that game and the Sunday game Nov 4 in
Green Bay
-
Snow Games If you
define the potential snow season as beginning Nov. 1, we risk
snow dates Nov. 4 (in Green Bay), Dec. 2 (in NJ vs. the Jets)
and Dec. 9 (in Seattle if it snows there in winter).
-
Holiday Tie-ins Oct. 29
MNF vs. the Niners - 2 days before
Halloween. Nov. 25 - Thanksgiving
Weekend - we host the Rams. Two
days before Christmas on Dec. 23, we host the 23 Bears.
One day before New Years Eve on
Dec. 30 we play our final game in San Francisco.
-
Possible intriguing Story Lines
We face Matt Flynn in our home opener followed by Brady &
Vick. Other intriguing matchups: Tim Tebow Dec. 2 and a
rejuvinated Bear offense on Dec. 23. A tight division race
could come all the way down to our final game Dec. 30 vs. the
Niners
Pre-Draft Period is 2 Weeks Too Long
- Sat. April 14, 2012
- The Silly Season is upon us. As Charley Casserly describes it,
the next 10 days or so will be when teams retire to their War
Rooms, hang up the "Keep Out" signs, roll up their sleeves and
start stacking their final Draft Boards. This understandably
creates a "news-vacuum" frustrating to everyone who earns a living
covering sports, pro football or the draft.
In the communications biz, it's axiomatic that
"mischief fills an information-vacuum." This is when a few guys
projected to be undrafted free agents suddenly appear in the first
2 or 3 rounds of the draft boards that exist only in reporters'
minds. Or where names you never heard of even creep into the
bottom of a smattering of first round mock drafts. (One new
hotshots we're hearing about: Chandler Jones DE Syracuse. And at
the top of the draft we're beginning to hear QB Ryan Tannehill's
name being mentioned as a possible 3rd pick, with Matt Kalil
dropping like a stone).
People! People! I can't restate this loudly
enough - the names of guys rumored to be shooting up and down the
draft boards are creatures of the disinformation-universe and
media writers who need stuff to say . Most if not all the NFL
teams haven't come close to finalizing their draft boards yet.
Whom to Believe - As we get
closer to Draft Day, the mocks get wilder and wilder as more
"casual followers" from the media chime in with their picks. But
there are a few media experts worth listening to. They fall into 2
categories: (1) Those who really know football scouting and
drafting (not too many of them) and (2) Others (mostly local beat
writers) who have inside sources within the FO's of their hometown
team. And, oh yeah, I'm pretty sure there's a network of
beat-writers across the nation who feed one another tidbits of
local gossip and rely upon one another for guidance - logically
good sources of info, but beware the evils a herd mentality can
sometimes deliver. Guys I follow: Gary Myers and Peter King
nationally. Somers and Jurecki locally. The "pick by pick" guys on
NFLN and ESPN "cheat" - they get a :15 to :30 - second
information-lead as to what's written on the draft-card, and then
they act as though they knew it all the time.
Anyway - Enjoy the final 2 weeks before the
draft, but trust your own eyeballs and take all the wild buzz
floating around out there with a grain of salt.
BPA vs. Need -
Sun. April 8, 2012 -
With less than 3 weeks til Draft Day, the boards are heating up
with robust debate over whether a team (or teams in general) are
better off selecting the Best Player Available (BPA) at each pick
or whether they'd be better of "drafting for need." Although I've
been a BPA guy ever since Dennis Green took over for Coach Mac,
I'm playing Devil's Advocate this year; raising the question of
whether the Cardinals are (a) in such dire straits at certain
roster positions (like OT and #2 WR) and (b) did little to address
the crises in free agency - we should set aside our BPA policy for
this year only and, with each pick, select the "best player
available who'll fill a major need."
To further the discussion, I've lain out three
7-round mock draft scenarios; (1) following the BP philosophy, (2)
filling a primary need and (3) filling an alternative primary
need. Enjoy:
Pick |
By BPA |
By Need A |
By Need B |
13. |
J Wright
WR |
Glenn OL |
Hightower
ILB |
80. |
Pead RB |
Curry DE |
Matthews
WR |
112. |
Bergstrom
OL |
A Cole LB |
Iloka S |
151. |
Adcock OL |
Jenkins WR |
Kaddu LB |
177. |
Keenum QB |
Martin S |
O Bolden
CB |
185. |
D Wolfe
DT |
Benjamin
WR |
Shoemaker
WR |
221. |
Rodriguez
FB |
Hicks DT |
Paige-Moss DE |
Late Risers
- Fri. April 6, 2012 -
I'm not sure why we're seeing so many "below the radar" draft
prospects moving up the charts this year (& I suggest you heed
Charley Casserly's words of caution - that the most meaningful
data you get on most prospects is the stuff you collect in
Nov./Dec.) but this has certainly been the year for guys coming
out of nowhere to occupy 1st or 2nd round grades. I don't think
this is so much due to players suddenly getting better in the
offseason, but that scouts are becoming more sophisticated about
back-checking players and doing due-diligence after seeing
interesting things about players at the Combine and later. The
following is my list of prospects who have suddenly jumped in
value:
Ryan Tannehill QB (Once
the Luck and RG III excitement quieted down, scouts began to
realize that there was still pretty good talent directly below
them. Tannehill (who admittedly is a raw but talented 2 - 3 year
project) may go as high as the Top 10 in the first round.
Brock Osweiler QB Big ol'
guy with a cannon. and a huge upside who could conceivably vault
into the first round. depending on team needs for QB's.
Stephen Hill WR Once listed
as #18 on the PFW position-ranking list, but off-the-charts
Combine scores changed all this - most experts have him rated in
Kendall Wright territory (a half-dozen to one -dozen pegs beneath
the first 2 WR's (Blackmon and Floyd).
Coby Fleener TE Initially,
no TE's were projected to be drafted in the first round, but
supply & demand being what it is, Fleener (who wasn't even a
unanimous choice to be rated #1 TE) is now getting a hard look at
the bottom of the first round
Cordy Glenn OL Ranked among
the top half-dozen guard prospects, Glenn - who played a lot of
tackle in college - demonstrated so much athleticism during his
Senior Bowl and Combine workouts to cause those whose teams are
mildly hysterical about needing a LT to cut Glenn considerable
slack and move him up the charts possibly as high as "Reiff
territory" in the top 10 - 15.
Shea McClellan DE
Originally listed #14th among DE's by PFW, McClellan is now
showing up in the first round of Kiper's latest mock and among
Mayock's Top Five DE's. We don't know why. It just is.
Stephen Gilmore CB Started
out ranking #4 or #5 among a very talented pool of corner
prospects but is now rated as high as #2 (behind Clairborne.
Mark Barron S Always the
highest rated safety of this class, but safeties seldom go high
and the talent this year was somewhat underwhelming. But supply
and demand apparently has forced Barron high enough to now be
considered a Top 10 - 15 pick.
Josh Robinson DB He wasn't
even ranked by PFW and 18th best CB by Lindy's though he did rank
#8 according to PFDG. But DRC or AJ Jefferson-level workout
numbers have moved him into Mayock's Top 5 corners.
Additional "Watch List": DE
Andre Branch has been getting more than his share
of attention. ILB Bobby Wagner has posted insane
workout scores as has OLB Kyle Wilber.
Cards Add Veteran Safety/Lose Lutui On
the heels of losing versatile DB Richard Marshall and signing
former Steeler CB William Gay, the Cardinals signed 28 year-old
safety, James Sanders. This in addition to lining up pre-draft
interviews with a few prospective rookie safetiesk, including
George Iloka and Brandon Taylor.
Duece Lutui has been signed by his old college
coach, Pete Carroll in Seattle. A year ago, he had signed with
Cincy but, in a truncated Lockout offseason, skipped the physical
which he subsequently failed. Deal was voided, and the Cardinals
welcomed him back. Although he had well-publicized weight problems
and never regained his starting LG spot last season, I feel badly
and am disappointed - here you had a local kid with "planet
people" measurables and a sparkling personality who grew up an
ardent Cardinal fan (a perfect recipe for a perennial pro bowl
lineman. Instead, he ate his way off the roster and is history as
a Cardinal. It's stories like these that are behind the decline of
many a franchise.
Bell Signs With Philly (One Source So
Far) -
Wed. April 4, 2012 -
KFFL reports that the Eagles have signed Demetrus Bell to a five
year contract. This means that (unless Marcus McNeill is
interested in us and can pass a physical) we will either
have to "draft for need" to upgrade our OT situation or stand pat
with what we've got. I've always been a bit reluctant to preach
doom or gloom (preferring instead to react to things as they
happen) but I'm really frustrated that the single most critical
area of weakness (because the ground game, QB safety and
protecting late-game leads all rely on a strong offensive line.
Ours sucked last year, and - other than swing-guy Adam Snyder -
we've done nothing to fix it. And now we'll probably pass up top
athletes at other positions (like Ingram and Keuchly) or tradie
down out of the top-talent plateau in order to reach for a
LT (repeating the same mistakes we made when we passed on Adrian
Peterson to reach for Levi or when we passed on Suggs by trading
down to grab Bryant Johnson and Calvin Pace).
Cards Entertain 7 Visitors -
Mon. April 2, 2012 -
Seven prospects are said to be visiting the Cards (Note -
This doesn't necessarily mean we'll draft these guys or sign them
as FA's (quite often, we'll use these interviews to fill in
missing gaps of information not obtained from game-tape, at the
Combine, or from their Pro Day). What can be
said, however, is that we know that at some level or another, the
Cardinals have shown interest in the young man. Visitor list
includes:
Juron
Criner WR Arizona (Rated #10 WR by Lindy's and
#13 by PFDG)
Matt Conrath DE
Virginia (Rated #20 DE by Lindy's)
Ronnie Cameron DT
Old Dominion
Ryan Davis LB
Bethune Cookman
Javron Hosley CB
Virginia Tech (Rated #7 CB - behind Gilmore and Minnefield
by Lindy's and #12 CB by PFDG)
Omar Bolden CB ASU
(Rated #23 CB by Lindy's and #19 by PFDG)
Tavon Wilson S
Illinois
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"Another Fluid PreDraft Week"
- Sat. March 31, 2012 -
Two events could logically influence the direction of the draft.
First was the injury to Eagle OT Jason Peters (which could reduce
the likelihood that Demetrus Bell will land in the desert and
place extra pressure on the Cardinals to draft for a need at LT).
Second was the signing of smashmouth Giant RB Brandon Jacobs by
the Niners (which, in turn could pressure other NFL West teams -
including the Cardinals - to "draft for defensive size and
toughness" instead of speed). If the draft were held to day, I'd
see our most likely options being DeCastro, Ingram and/or Keuchly.
I'd be happy with any of the three, but in the unlikely event none
were there, I'd be tempted to try and trade down for at least one
extra pick.
Update on 7 Round Mock - While putting together Top 221's, Top 13 Board, Position Rankers
etc., it dawned on me that there are two different Boards that
teams would logically assemble prior to a real or mock draft: (1)
"The Players as the Team Views Them" and (2) "The Way Other Teams
View Them" (i.e. where they'd be likely to come off the board).
Because each team has its own drafting priorities (& own scouts),
their view of the talent pool will differ slightly from the other 31 NFL
teams (including the Cardinals). As a result, there will be typically at least a few highly valued
players (as we view them) who will fall to us at each
point in the draft,
thereby, to our mind, providing better value than the pick
deserves, resulting than a better-than-average overall draft from
year to year.
When laying out seven round mocks, it's
important we avoid the hazard of "using our own board" to figure
out who will or won't be available at each pick (because we'd run out
of quality picks early-
every player we like will come off the board early but that's
unlikely to happen in "real life" because other teams won't like
all of them as much as we do). A more realistic way to do it
is to use respective third-party draft board as an indicator of
where players are expected to be drafted round by round.
So that's what I did.
Updated Gollin 7 Round Mock -
Tuesday March 27, 2012 - The
compensatory picks have been made and, although the official draft
order hasn't been released by the NFL, Mike Sando and ASFN's
JoeSchmo's renditions were nearly identical so I decided to use
Sando's. I did something different this year - I created a
chart
(based on CBSportsline's overall player rankings) showing
the best available player for each position at each point where we
pick, and from those players, I made my projection. Here they are:
13. DeCastro G (2nd Option: Keuchly ILB)
80. J Brown OL (2nd Option: Kendricks ILB.
3rd Option: Ta'amu NT) 112. Matthews
WR (2nd Option Blake C. 3rd Option: Wilber OLB) 151. B. Taylor S
(2nd Option: Bryan TE) 177. Foles QB
(2nd Option: Datko OL) 185. Fangupo DT (2nd
Option: Igwenagu TE/FB) 221. Carder LB
Scoping the Draft - Mon.
March 26, 2012 -
Til now, I've refrained from doing
mocks or predicting Cardinal draft strategy because it was too
early and there were too many other variables (including free
agency) to clear away. Well let's just say that Phase 1 is nearly
over. Time to move into Phase 2:
There appear to be three
strategies open to the Cardinal FO: (1) Draft the best available
athlete from our short list of 13, (2) Reach for need (most
probably at LT but possibly a wide receiver or pass rusher or (3)
Trade down (probably into the early twenties) in order to replace
our lost ("Kolb") 2nd round pick.
-
It's unclear who'll be available at #13 if
we go the BPA route - most notable names being the WR (Floyd),
OG (DeCastro), RB (Richardson), OT (Reiff), DE/LB's (Ingram or
Upshaw) or the ILB cruncher (Kuechly). What is doubly unclear,
however, is where these and other prospects are slotted on the
Cardinals' Top 13 board. For all we know, the Cardinal staff
may be in love with one of the NT's (Poe or Brockers).
-
If the Cards do reach for need (note - even
if they do this, they'll never admit it), they could draft
Stanford LT Jonathon Martin. Or they could decide to play
musical chairs on the O-line and draft DeCastro as an indirect
"need" pick. Or they could target a receiver and - if,
as expected, Blackmon and Floyd are gone - roll the dice on
Ga. Tech burner, Stephen Hill.
-
But just as likely is that the Cards have
either (a) decided to trade down in order to regain their lost
pick or (b) have a sjort list of 4 or 5 players they hope will
be available at #13 and will trade out of the spot should all
of those players be no longer available. If we do trade down,
this draft appears deep in good, though not-elite offensive
linemen and quality defensive tackles and we could help
ourselves a lot by regaining our lost #2.
It's hard to figure. Maybe things will seem
clearer as we get closer to the draft, but I
suspect, we'll be in the dark until Draft Day itself. Catch you
later.
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